Quota Prediction |
There are two methods that can be used to
predict milk production. The first,
Predictions / Quota Prediction, requires certain data to be entered before the prediction
can be done, and the second, Predictions / Predicted Production Report, works
automatically but requires that every cow has complete lactation records.
Click on the User Parameters tab.
If no figures have been entered for the quota
year then click on the New Year button and then enter in the year you want the prediction
to start, for example, 2001.
Click to two buttons in the
“Lactations” area and the annual average litres for cows and heifers with the
average length of lactation will appear in the relevant boxes. If you do not agree with any of these figures you
may over-type them if you wish. It is possible to
return to the original figures at any time by clicking the lactation buttons again.
In the Total Quota box, enter the total amount
of quota available including any that has been leased.
Enter your butterfat base figure. Remember
this may have changed if you have leased any quota. The
Butterfat Adjustment Factor cannot be altered. The
Lactation Curve Set should be set to “Standard Curves”.
Under Monthly Forecasts there are two years;
the year you have entered for the prediction to start, and the previous year. Both years need to be filled in fully, including the number
of cows and heifers calving in each month and the predicted butterfat.
When you have finished entering data click on
the Update Prediction button. This should be done
whenever any of the data is changed, in order that the figures can be re-calculated.
If you want to enter cows or heifers that you
think will be culled in the middle of their lactation, then they should be entered in
under the Heifers Culled tab or the Cows Culled tab.
Normally, there should not be any many to enter as most animals that are going to
be culled will in fact complete or nearly complete their lactation anyway. To enter an animal go to the calving month in the vertical
column and enter a figure 1 in the box under the month you expect the animal to be culled.
The Calving Pattern tab shows Actual and
Predicted figures for each month. The Actual figures
come automatically from the Herd Analysis program (found under Start >Programs >
1-Stop Herd Management program group) so long as data has been entered into it.
Under the Prediction tab there are Actual
figures and Predictions, again, the Actual figures come from the Herd Analysis program. The figures on the right are the results of the
calculations. Notes, if any figures are red
it means the figures are over quota.
The Monthly Figures tab shows a graph, which
compares the Predicted figures with the Actual, and the Cumulative Figures tab shows the
running total compared with the Predicted figures and also the quota threshold.
The Quota Prediction Report, which shows the
current situation, can be printed at any time.
This is a fixed report.
Just enter the Start and End dates for the report and select Standard Curves for
the Lactation Curve Set, then click on Preview. This
report is very quick and easy to run, but it does rely on accurate data in the Herd
Management program.
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